A report by researchers reveals that the number of Americans living with diabetes will nearly double in the next 25 years.
According to the report the number of people with diabetes will increase from 23.7 million in 2009 to 44.1 million in 2034, and spending on diabetes will almost triple, rising from $113 billion to $336 billion.
The number of those with diabetes covered by Medicare will rise from 8.2 million to 14.6 million, with Medicare spending on diabetes jumping from $45 billion to $171 billion.
“If we don’t change our diet and exercise habits or find new, more effective and less expensive ways to prevent and treat diabetes, we will find ourselves in a lot of trouble as a population,” said the study’s lead author Elbert Huang.
Previous diabetes predictions:
- A 1991 study stated that the number of Americans with diabetes would double, from 6.5 million in 1987 to 11.6 million by 2030, which, as it turns out, is less than half the number of cases in 2009.
- A 1998 study foretold more cases sooner: 22 million US cases by 2025. This study concluded that worldwide surveillance of diabetes is a necessary first step towards its prevention and control, which is now recognized as an urgent priority.
- A 2001 study predicted 29 million cases by 2050. The authors of that study warned that their projection may be “more alarming than previously believed,” adding that the “economic cost of diabetes is already staggering.”
- A retrospective 2008 study confirmed the predicted trends, showing that the number of Americans diagnosed with diabetes rose steadily from 10 million in 1994, to 14 million in 2000, to 19 million in 2007, and the annual cost–just for drugs–for people affected by diabetes nearly doubled in six years, rising from $6.7 billion in 2001 to $12.5 billion in 2007.
The current prediction is based on the assumption that the prevalence of the overweight and obese in the United States will remain relatively stable. Most diabetes cases are type 2 diabetes, which are strongly associated with obesity. If obesity rates continue to rise, the current prediction could be conservative.
Much of the increase in cases and in costs will be driven by aging “baby boomers,” the 77 million Americans born between 1946 and 1957 who are approaching the age when the risk of developing diabetes is high.
References:
1. Elbert S. Huang, et al. Projecting the Future Diabetes Population Size and Related Costs for the U.S. Diabetes Care December 2009 vol. 32 no. 12 2225-2229. doi: 10.2337/dc09-0459 .
